Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

An “internal document” from Fujifilm has claimed that Canon and Nikon will lose 50 percent of their market share within three years, while Fujifilm’s market share will climb during the same period.

There are a number of interesting points to come out of this. Firstly, the source is the Fuji Rumors website, so it’s nothing but a rumor right now, as the article's author clearly states. Secondly, I find it curious that there’s no direct link to the actual “internal document” anywhere. It’s hard to cast an unbiased eye over the prediction if we can’t actually see it. Perhaps it’s in Japanese, but I’m sure there are many bilingual people out there.

Further, having lived in Japan for 15 years, it’s not often I see Japanese companies make such bold predictions about direct rivals. It simply isn’t their way. Perhaps the “internal document” came from international offices, but as we have no link to it, we simply don’t know.

Finally, the implication is that Canon’s and Nikon’s tardiness in entering the mirrorless market will be the catalyst for such a dramatic fall. Personally, I just can’t see it. As a Canon user for over 15 years, waiting another year or so for a high-end Canon mirrorless system to hit the market is of no great concern to me. My Canon 5D Mark IV is doing a perfect job for me now and I’ve never been busier, or happier with my work.

Perhaps Sony or Fuji may be at the forefront of the mirrorless market now, but I have no doubt the likes of Canon and Nikon will pretty quickly catch up when they do eventually jump on board, albeit a bit late. In the meantime, I’m happy to wait and watch.

But predicting a 50 percent market loss for the two giants within three years? It’s a big call. What do you think? And if you’re a Canon or Nikon owner, are you going to make the switch to a mirrorless system with another brand soon or just wait until a mirrorless system from Canon or Nikon becomes available?

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

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101 Comments

Previous comments
Jan Kruize's picture

From fuji rumours website, ok, i’m gonna read a banana now.

Anonymous's picture

C'mon don't take such informations seriously. Probably a staf motivation speech of Fuji CEO or company party joke. But one is for sure, they are praying for this, becouse the Instax wave will drop one day.

Mike Stern's picture

It was more than 5 years ago we talked about the future being mirrorless. Sony already proved that last year.
This article talking about 3 years later. It’s perfectly fair to accept that. Unless you are awake but pretending to be a sleep.

Anonymous's picture

The rumor is not that the future is mirrorless. It's that a seismic market shift that essentially topples the two biggest names in the industry is going to happen within a 3-year span despite the fact that both companies are still positioned well in the market with competitive offerings today and both are about to release their own mirrorless cameras within the next year or so. So no, it's not perfectly fair to accept a wild prediction like that—at least not if you have a shred of common sense.

Iain Stanley's picture

It would be nice to have unfettered access to the "internal document". It's hard to read into why Fuji would release something like that, and why Fuji Rumors would report its release, if they didn't want the wider public to access it....

Thomas Mørkeberg's picture

We have seen this before with Nokia who came to late to the party with smartphones.

It takes time to catch up. Even for the biggest companies. Some whould argue it actually takes way longer for big companies.

Anonymous's picture

When it comes to technological shifts like this, big companies are often in a strange predicament. In the case of Sony, they had effectively no real DSLR market share so it was no problem for them to put all of their eggs in the mirrorless basket. For Canon and Nikon, who have huge shares of the market in DSLR, it is awkward for them to continue to invest in DSLR's in order to satisfy their current clients while also diverting resources to develop mirrorless cameras in parallel which share the exact same market that they are currently profiting from.

It makes perfect sense for these companies to let competitors such as Fuji and Sony do the R&D, push the maturation of the technology, and test the viability of the market before making their own move. The only question is whether they waited too long or not, but in this case I would say that they should be just fine due to their strong base of users. Of course if that all changes if they release crap products that flop, but I'm pretty sure they realize how serious the situation is.

Iain Stanley's picture

The difference as well is that smartphones instigated a new world shift. Phones that could play music, surf the net, take photos, run video, store files etc etc. Previous phones (including Nokia's) weren't anywhere near so advanced.

The difference here is whether or not mirrorless systems are actually making such massive improvements to the photography field. A different system, sure, but are they producing photos that are 20/30/40/50 times better than high-end DSLRs?

Personally, I don't think so.

They're going to have to make some pretty darn compelling arguments to have people new to photography to jump on the mirrorless bandwagon and to get crop-sensor / full-frame sensor people to leave the investments they've already made to go to mirrorless. I may be a lowly peon starting out a business with my lowly little Nikon, but I'll never go to mirrorless. I'll stick with what I know and what works for me, I don't care how great the tech supposedly is

In a world where Nikon and Canon are the PS4s and Xboxes, everybody else is just Nintendo.

Sincerely i don't think that canon/nikon cam lose to much market because them have a very good lenses and some people like me are satisfied with dslr to don't think about migrate to mirrorless. I use Canon 6d for weddings and I don't find a real needs and reasons to change the system. Why I need to change the system when the good photography is maded from the brain, not by the gear