Should You Buy the Sony a7 III Now or Wait for the a7 IV?

With such good deals currently available on the Sony a7 III, buyers are faced with a tough decision: should you take advantage of the low prices to grab yourself a deal, or is it better to hold off until Sony releases the shiny new A7 IV next year?

It’s almost three years since Sony announced the game-changing a7 III, breaking the news in February 2018 with the camera hitting the shelves less than two months later. As well as packing in a ton of features — two card slots, incredible autofocus, high burst rate, solid video specifications — Sony made it something of a loss-leader when it came to price: at just $1,999, this was a lot of camera for not very much money.

This was Sony’s “basic” full frame model and yet it made competitors’ flagship look slightly dated due to the fact that many of the issues that had plagued mirrorless cameras were finally resolved: for example, battery life was greatly improved and the EVF, though not a patch on today’s models, was no longer such a distraction. Suddenly, Sony’s mirrorless full frame camera was the yardstick by which other cameras were being measured.

Somewhere on the horizon is its successor, the a7 IV. Both the a7C and the a7S III have given us some clues as to what we might expect to see in the new body, but as yet there are no solid details, compounded by the fact that Sony rumor websites are notoriously unreliable when compared to those for other brands.

The Assumptions

Despite the lack of details, it’s fair to make a couple of assumptions: it will have the real-time touch to autofocus tracking seen in the likes of the a7C and a6600 — a feature that could possibly have been brought to the a7 III via a firmware upgrade. The a7S III’s fully articulating screen and revamped menu system will also make its way across, the latter being a breath of fresh air for those who appreciate a camera’s interface. It will also go a long way to shutting up people like me who enjoy reminding everyone how dreadful Sony is when it comes to user experience.

It will be interesting to see what Sony opts for in terms of the sensor. It’s already recycled the a7 III sensor inside the a7C so it seems reasonable to expect a small bump in resolution to give a bit of differentiation if nothing else. Rumor sites seem set on something in the region of 30-32 megapixels and this would be logical given that this doesn’t push too far towards Sony’s higher resolution cameras and still allows for good dynamic range, solid low-light performance, and fast burst-rates and frame rates without having to massively upgrade the camera’s processing power — something that would increase the price of the camera.

Speaking of keeping prices down, don’t expect great things of the EVF. Sony Alpha Rumors is now saying 3.69 million dots. The a7C has what we assume is the same 2.3 million dot EVF of the a7 III but the a7 IV EVF might well seek to reduce costs, falling well short of the 5.76 million dots of the a7R IV.

As seen in the a7S III and a7C, the features offered through the combination of the gyroscope and Sony’s Catalyst Browse software will add more options for stabilizing your footage. Sony introduced this feature into their cinema-line of cameras but it’s since been creeping into hybrid bodies, first seen in the ZV-1.

It’s safe to assume that the a7 IV will be an excellent stills shooter and it’s likely that there will be a modest increase to the burst rate of the mechanical shutter, and a slightly larger bump to the electronic shutter. My guess is 12 and 15 respectively (previously 10 for both) and I’d argue that we’re into territory where increases are becoming largely irrelevant. (If you miss your shot shooting at 20 frames per second, you’re definitely doing something wrong.) 

For still shooters, the improvements will be incremental. Autofocus in the a7 III was so far ahead in 2018 that it’s often the default comparison when measuring up today’s cameras. Touch tracking would be a nice addition but along with a few extra megapixels and two or three more frames per second, that’s potentially not going to be enough to justify spending the extra cash on the a7 IV.

Video specifications are where it becomes interesting and it’s also where the rumors become particularly vague. 4K 60 feels certain but codecs and bit rates remain a mystery. Any limitations on record time would feel as though Sony is deliberately crippling the a7 IV to protect the a7S III.

So, Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Rumors suggest that the a7 IV isn’t due until the middle of 2021 so expect to wait at least 6 months for your new camera if you decide to stick it out until the upgrade. In time, Sony might drop the price of the a7 III further given that it doesn’t have its own entry-level full frame camera to go up against the Nikon Z 5 and the Canon RP. I’d expected the a7C to fill this gap but, priced above the a7 III, Sony is potentially left with a hole in its line up unless the a7 III sees further reductions. That said, there’s still a lot of money left in the a7 III and Sony might not be keen to drop the price too far given that it still fares well against the likes of the Canon R6, Nikon Z 6II, and Panasonic S5, as proven in this recent video.

If you shoot predominantly stills and have no real need for slow-motion B roll, the a7 III is an excellent choice given its current price. Instead of spending more money on a camera that doesn’t exist, put that cash towards some quality glass instead.

For hybrid shooters, it’s a trickier decision, not least because there’s still so little information available. It largely depends on how desperate you are to mix some 60p footage into your 4K timeline. Will it be worth the wait and the extra cost?

Price is fascinating. The rumor sites are suggesting $2,500, placing the a7 IV squarely up against the R6 with its 20 megapixels, 12 fps mechanical, 20 fps electronic, and 4K 10-bit video with recording times that are limited by overheating. This would make the a7 IV $500 more expensive than the a7 III at its launch, and $800 more expensive than its current holiday price of $1,698. (The a7C has retained its launch price of $1,798 and that likely won’t change for the foreseeable future.) The a7R IV is currently discounted to $2,998, down from $3,513, another factor that Sony will want to consider.

In short, here’s my judgment based on unreliable information and speculation: if you’re in the market for a new stills camera, you’ll be waiting a while for a body that offers incremental improvements while costing you significantly more. If you’re a hybrid shooter, weigh up whether you want to sit tight for the 4K 60p and an extra $800.

Good luck with your decision and let me know in the comments below what you think is the better choice.