Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

An “internal document” from Fujifilm has claimed that Canon and Nikon will lose 50 percent of their market share within three years, while Fujifilm’s market share will climb during the same period.

There are a number of interesting points to come out of this. Firstly, the source is the Fuji Rumors website, so it’s nothing but a rumor right now, as the article's author clearly states. Secondly, I find it curious that there’s no direct link to the actual “internal document” anywhere. It’s hard to cast an unbiased eye over the prediction if we can’t actually see it. Perhaps it’s in Japanese, but I’m sure there are many bilingual people out there.

Further, having lived in Japan for 15 years, it’s not often I see Japanese companies make such bold predictions about direct rivals. It simply isn’t their way. Perhaps the “internal document” came from international offices, but as we have no link to it, we simply don’t know.

Finally, the implication is that Canon’s and Nikon’s tardiness in entering the mirrorless market will be the catalyst for such a dramatic fall. Personally, I just can’t see it. As a Canon user for over 15 years, waiting another year or so for a high-end Canon mirrorless system to hit the market is of no great concern to me. My Canon 5D Mark IV is doing a perfect job for me now and I’ve never been busier, or happier with my work.

Perhaps Sony or Fuji may be at the forefront of the mirrorless market now, but I have no doubt the likes of Canon and Nikon will pretty quickly catch up when they do eventually jump on board, albeit a bit late. In the meantime, I’m happy to wait and watch.

But predicting a 50 percent market loss for the two giants within three years? It’s a big call. What do you think? And if you’re a Canon or Nikon owner, are you going to make the switch to a mirrorless system with another brand soon or just wait until a mirrorless system from Canon or Nikon becomes available?

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

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Previous comments
Iain Stanley's picture

Forcing current owners to use an adapter to fit a Canon lens on a Canon system (or Nikon) would be suicidal in my eyes. Perhaps that's why they're taking so long....? Trying to find or perfect a way so that native lenses can fit new mirrorless systems..

Michael Dougherty's picture

By market share, do you mean units or total revenue. I can understand a 50% drop in units as Nikon and Canon move to sell more high end bodies. Of course, any revenue losses in the low end of the market will be compensated for revenue gains in the high end, e.g. D850.

Iain Stanley's picture

It's hard to say because there is no access to the original "internal document". However, the Fuji Rumors website is a serious website for consumers, so their reporting of said document needs to be taken at face value. As for specific measurements, I'm not privy to that info.

Kirk Darling's picture

I'm going to call this headline clickbait.

A rumor that is so vague that nothing about its origin can even be verified doesn't call for such a Chicken Little headline. And even if the origin were verified, it means nothing. Fuji doesn't know what Canon or Nikon will produce two years from now. Such a prediction necessarily presumes that Canon and Nikon will do NOTHING over the next three years.

Iain Stanley's picture

Except that Fuji Rumors focuses on Fuji news, and Fuji Rumors broke the news about Fuji's "internal document". So it has to be taken somewhat seriously when it's being reported from within...

Kirk Darling's picture

It's a good thing you put "internal document" in quotes, because nobody has actually produced such an internal you yourself wrote.

There has been no document produced and there is no acknowledgment from Fuji that such a document exists. There is no supporting evidence from third parties of either the document or any data that would support the same conclusion. There isn't any data that might have been from the alleged document that would support the conclusion.

There is no substantial evidence (not to mention proof) that Fuji has reported anything from within. If it comes from Fuji at all, it might be nothing but the musings of a marketing intern.

Let's not get past the doubt that you yourself cast and start talking as though this will-o-the-wist was actually real Fuji business research information.

Iain Stanley's picture

All completely valid points. However, across the web there are a number of sites specifically dedicated to certain brands/companies/makers.

Fuji Rumors is one such site, dedicated to all things Fuji, obviously. I’ve never had reason to dismiss news from their site, and it’s one place I look for Fuji related info.

Nonetheless, you are right that the absence of visibility of said “internal document” is muddying the waters somewhat.

Deleted Account's picture

"Firstly, the source is the Fuji Rumors website" Enough said.

I'll give up photography rather than shoot mirrorless, no matter who makes them.

I just wonder why. I don't get it. You may prefer using an OVF (I prefer an EVF) but you will get used to it.

Deleted Account's picture

Some people like liver and onions. I don't. There's nothing to get. I will NEVER get used to it because I'll never use one. What I don't get is why would someone keep doing something they don't like in order to get used to it? Something else I don't get: why would you vote someone down for expressing a personal opinion? I didn't say mirrorless cameras are evil or bad or even inferior. smh

I can't understand why someone will give up their passion just because a different tech gets introduced. I don't understand that mindset (nor do I have to).

Why would you think that somebody has to give up his passion if not goes mirrorless? Mirrorless is not the holy grail of photography.

Quote from Sam Fargo: I'll give up photography rather than shoot mirrorless, no matter who makes them.

That's why

DSRL aren't going anywhere, you have more choice now. Why do I have to get used with EVF if I like OVF. It's not black or white. You said "Pieter Batenburg - May 13, 2018 Sam Fargo
I can't understand why someone will give up their passion just because a different tech gets introduced." Why do you think I have to give up photography ? I can still use DSRL even if they will not make. Mine will work just fine. This is not a religion. These are just tools some like DSLR some like mirorrles. They can live together.

Iosif Kallai I fail to follow you. What is your point?

I can see that, you are a little bit slow. Not everybody must use mirrorless, that's what I am saying.

I was taling to Sam Fargo and not to you. Or were you too slow to follow?

So, have you conviced everybody to use mirrorless camera ? I see a lot of DSLR's .

Deleted Account's picture

A different tech getting introduced doesn't mean I have to shoot with it. A lot of people are still shooting with film after all these years of digital cameras being available. But since this seems to bother you, being able to see the subject with my eyes and NOT through a miniature monitor IS my passion. It's kinda like making love to your wife versus masturbating. From an analytical point of view, they achieve the same thing but the former *for me* is passion and the latter is nothing. I hope you can sleep now. :-)

Everybody must shoot mirrorless. Can't you understand ? Everybody must get rid of every gear thet has mirrors in it now and buy mirrorless.

Deleted Account's picture

I tried that but it was too difficult trying to comb my hair, looking into a pool of water. ;-)

Anonymous's picture

That awkward moment when you demonstrate that your interest in photography is about the gear, and really doesn't have much to do with image making or the creation of art.

Deleted Account's picture

I don't understand your comment.

Anonymous's picture

No, I don't suppose you do.

If a change in the availability of equipment will stop you from making photographs (note I said "making"), then clearly you care more about the equipment than you do about the image making process itself.

Deleted Account's picture

I see. Is there a similar awkward moment when you read an entire thread and realize you made a foolish comment?

Anonymous's picture

OK, Sam. Well let us all know how you go if these predictions prove right, and you subsequently decide you aren't going to make photographs anymore.

You may not like my comment, but you're the one who made the original post.

Deleted Account's picture

If you read the entire thread, you should know the experience of taking the photo is paramount to me. If I don't like the experience, photography will be useless. I love seeing the animal's gestures or the flower's beauty or the seascape's quiet strength or the character in an individuals face *with my eyes*. That connection is the reason FOR ME. Based on that, I stand by my original post. I hope that clears up my intent. Are we good? :-)

Anonymous's picture

We were never not good. But if that is your rationale, you really shouldn't be taking photographs at all, as it removes you from the immersion so claim you so desperately crave; regardless of the camera type you are using.

Perhaps you should consider Buddhism.

Deleted Account's picture

Okay, so you really don't understand at all. That's fine. I hope you'll note, I have never or will ever tell someone else what they should or shouldn't do or what they should or shouldn't use to do it. Nor have I attempted to ridicule them for their preferences. Maybe that's something *you* should consider. :-/

Anonymous's picture

I understand perfectly, and my comment was deadly serious. Looking through a camera separates you from the environment, end of story.

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