Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years

An “internal document” from Fujifilm has claimed that Canon and Nikon will lose 50 percent of their market share within three years, while Fujifilm’s market share will climb during the same period.

There are a number of interesting points to come out of this. Firstly, the source is the Fuji Rumors website, so it’s nothing but a rumor right now, as the article's author clearly states. Secondly, I find it curious that there’s no direct link to the actual “internal document” anywhere. It’s hard to cast an unbiased eye over the prediction if we can’t actually see it. Perhaps it’s in Japanese, but I’m sure there are many bilingual people out there.

Further, having lived in Japan for 15 years, it’s not often I see Japanese companies make such bold predictions about direct rivals. It simply isn’t their way. Perhaps the “internal document” came from international offices, but as we have no link to it, we simply don’t know.

Finally, the implication is that Canon’s and Nikon’s tardiness in entering the mirrorless market will be the catalyst for such a dramatic fall. Personally, I just can’t see it. As a Canon user for over 15 years, waiting another year or so for a high-end Canon mirrorless system to hit the market is of no great concern to me. My Canon 5D Mark IV is doing a perfect job for me now and I’ve never been busier, or happier with my work.

Perhaps Sony or Fuji may be at the forefront of the mirrorless market now, but I have no doubt the likes of Canon and Nikon will pretty quickly catch up when they do eventually jump on board, albeit a bit late. In the meantime, I’m happy to wait and watch.

But predicting a 50 percent market loss for the two giants within three years? It’s a big call. What do you think? And if you’re a Canon or Nikon owner, are you going to make the switch to a mirrorless system with another brand soon or just wait until a mirrorless system from Canon or Nikon becomes available?

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

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101 Comments

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Anonymous's picture

On the other hand, if you assert that photography gives you a valid reason to get off your arse and leave the house; that is perfectly valid, but not the same thing.

user-156929's picture

I think we've exhausted this subject. Good day.

Anonymous's picture

It's sort of funny that you believe I was ridiculing you.

user-156929's picture

"That awkward moment when you demonstrate that your interest in photography is about the gear, and really doesn't have much to do with image making or the creation of art."

Anonymous's picture

Yes, you said that if you can't get your camera gear of choice that you would no longer take photos. The inference is entirely reasonable, I can't help that you object to that inference.

user-156929's picture

The comment panels are getting too narrow to read so I'm replying to your last comment here.

My original comment was hyperbole. There is no reasonable expectation I would ever have to make such a decision. DSLRs will be around at least for the remainder of my life. Where you err is in assuming I have no interest in image making or art. That would be like telling a sculptor he has no interest in art if he refuses to use a brush and canvas.

Anonymous's picture

So now we approach the truth.

You were making an inflammatory statement (despite the fact it was untrue). In other words, you're a troll. Funny though, just a litte bit earlier you defended your OP by asserting some rubbish about immersion in nature, and when I didn't buy that you shifted your position to 'surprise, I was only joking, I didn't really mean it'.

Congratulations, you just became incredibly boring. Damned trolls are everywhere.

Emmet Adriaans's picture

Its a damn camera....

Tony Northrup's picture

Not over 3 years... Maybe 10 years. Brands REALLY matter with photography.

Mr Hogwallop's picture

When Canon worked out a decent AF I was at photo show in NY at the Javits, I don't recall the name but it was a big one. I was using Nikon at the time an asked a rep about when Nikon would have AF lenses and cameras, she scoffed and said AF was for amateurs and Nikon would prefer to spend the $ on glass R&D. Then they developed a great AF system
When Canon came out with the 1Ds full frame DSLR, Nikon scoffed and said their smaller sensors were all anyone would need. Now Nikon has one of the largest (best?) full frame sensors in DSLR
So I would predict that the Nikon mirrorless will be pretty pretty darn amazing, whether it takes legacy lenses is still a big IF. Canon will probably come up with 4 different models with 4 levels of price, AF accuracy, etc. in order to not cannibalize their DSLR sales.

So being first is not always best, but Sony and Fuji have done a great job leading the way.
Now the bears (Nikon Canon) are awake. Let's see how they catch up.

If they catch up. I hope so because competition is good.

Iain Stanley's picture

I never quite understand the “cannibalize” argument. To me (a long time Canon user), you either upgrade or you don’t. Whether it’s to a DSLR or a mirrorless system, what does Canon care (or Nikon)?

As long as I’m staying with them, how is it any different from me going from the 5D Mkiii to the 5D Mkiv? Canon is still getting my money......so how are they eating themselves if I (or any other current user), spends money on going from DSLR to mirrorless?

The real issue is the compatibility of current lenses.....

Rival predicted... Lol

Self-serving of Fuji. Marketing to get their name out there and spread unfounded rumours. It's working.

George Kunze's picture

Professional for over 30 years. Went from Nikon to Hasselblad to Fuji to Canon and now to Sony. They are not loyal to us, see no reason to be loyal to them. Canon overcharging by a thousand dollars in my opinion for 5D4. I love my Sony cameras.

Ingemar Kenyatta's picture

They will lose market share but it will take longer than 3 years. New entrants are not buying Canon as often. Legacy users will stay at high rates.

I wanted to switch to Sony just because they were new. Due to Sonys price tag I tried another mirrorless first, Olympus. I liked it so much more than a DSLR on several fronts. That made me want to switch for practical reasons but my Canon investment was too high.

When the opportunity presented itself I tried a high end Sony camera. Then I just sold all my Canon lenses and went all in. Those that say the difference is minimal either work for Canon's social media team or are diehard fans. Sony mirrorless cameras are markedly better.

I have owned the 5D1/3/4, the 6D, 40/70D and other canons I can't remember at the moment. Sony mirrorless is better.

user-156929's picture

Every single (physical) thing in life is compromise. You can certainly say Sony mirrorless cameras are markedly better for you. You can not, however, say the same for everyone.

Disclaimer: I don't shoot Sony or Canon.

Place it into the fake news category. If you don't know what the assumptions are based on the entire news story is worthless.

Scott Hussey's picture

In other news, Pepsi today, announced that they will be outselling Coca-Cola by 2020...

This seems easy to believe.

Market share = their total percent of the camera market, in dollars (or Yen).

Canon and Nikon split between then the point and shoot market. This market is pretty quickly going to zero, as cell phones make a separate camera useless to most people.

Just to stay even with their market share they need to grow the rest of their camera business to make up for the shrinkage.

If Canon, Fuji, Sony and Nikon all sell roughly the same number of ICL cameras next year as this year, Nikon and Canon's share of the overall camera market will decline, as their dominant positions in point and shoot disappear.

Sony had a pretty small point and shoot business. Fuji, even less.

This market fact is made worse by another: the fastest growing segment is mirrorless. Which Nikon and Canon are still either absent or flailing around in.

So, this year and for another year or two they will probably keep losing share.

user-156929's picture

It's my understanding, and I could easily be wrong, that mirrorless are flatlining (no growing) while DSLRs are shrinking. All ILCs are in the same boat, one side just happens to be sinking quicker.

I shoot Sony but used Fuji for a couple of years. Sorry Fuji but it's not gonna happen. Nikon and Canon are great brands making top cameras for a long time. The just need to release mirrorless cameras to, and I am sure they will. Looking forward to better selection of systems in the future.

Phones are a bigger challenge then mirrorless.

Harry lener's picture

I trust Canon, not sure about Nikon I believe Canon, they been working on advance technology of mirrorless none fixed lens 7'X4'

thomas Palmer's picture

It's not because a technology has been researched that it becomes cheaper for other brands. Making a supply chain, algorithms and having a big park of native lenses takes time and cannot be reverse engineered. The funny thing is that with other brands having to build a new mount, it's now Sony that will have the most native lenses.

Also if Canon/nikon shooters break their camera this year, will they jump ship now or re-buy and wait ?

It is speculative and subjective. Who makes the best loved sensors and tech in a given application market? There is “the winner!” Btw, Kodak is still alive and holds patents that keep it in the game.

Jonathan Brady's picture

Maybe it's true but also slightly twisted, as many rumors tend to be. Perhaps it means that the DSLR market share which is majority owned by Canon and Nikon, will shrink in volume in 3 years. That's a different scenario than Canon and Nikon losing 50% market share because Canon and Nikon could simply replace their DSLR volume with mirrorless.

Jon Williams's picture

Why do so many people assume that experienced photographers will want a mirrorless camera? Framing through a mirrorless (tiny TV set) does not compare to the more efficient mirror prism method. Mirrorless viewfinders “bum me out.”

Anonymous's picture

Any new technology will have growing pains. The fact is that EVF's are getting better and better with every iteration. Now whether they'll get to a point where it won't cause eye strain is an interesting (and important) question.

If I could keep everything about the D850 the way it is (including the size), but also add things like in-view finder focus peaking, silent shooting using the viewfinder, the ability to live-view exposure through the viewfinder, and the ability to do things like view the histogram and review images right inside the viewfinder, I would take it in a heartbeat.

Considering that Canon is #3-#5 in the world in number of U.S. patents filed for the past ten years, and is the #1 company in patents for ALL Japanese companies for over 40 years, it would be my personal guess that Canon is actually licensing their technologies to Sony and others, allowing these other companies to create the market demand, then Canon will come out with better cameras, with better performance characteristics using technology they haven't allowed to be licensed.

The truth is the market was divided by 10 in 10 years... mostly because of the collapse of the low cost compact camera where smartphones makes better pictures.
When you look to the waiting time to get a Nikon D850 (see http://www.cameraegg.org/nikon-d850-in-stock-tracker/), it's difficult to predict the market continue to collapse.

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